Ajax Amateurs 1–0 HBC: Result & Stats

Ajax Amateurs

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

HBC

4/12/2025

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 29Sportpark De Toekomst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ajax Amateurs57%

×Draw21%

HBC22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ajax AmateursExpected goals in this matchHBC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.27

Ajax Amateurs

2.15

HBC

1.27

Ajax Amateurs creates 69% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 17 away

1.59

creates per match

0.88

1.67

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Ajax Amateurs

1.59

HBC

0.88

allows per match

Ajax Amateurs

1.67

HBC

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ajax Amateurs+0.00on par

HBC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax Amateurs ↓

HBC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Ajax Amateurs or draw

78%

Ajax Amateurs or HBC

79%

Draw or HBC

43%

Winning margin

Ajax Amateurs wins by 2+

35%

HBC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ajax Amateurs 1+ goals

88%

Ajax Amateurs 2+ goals

63%

Ajax Amateurs 3+ goals

36%

HBC 1+ goals

72%

HBC 2+ goals

36%

HBC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ajax Amateurs (draw refunded)

72%

HBC (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax Amateurs at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.67 · 46 matches

HBC away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax Amateurs attack 1.59 + HBC defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.15

HBC attack 0.88 + Ajax Amateurs defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ajax Amateurs scores more

57%

level

21%

HBC scores more

22%

Ajax Amateurs at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ajax Amateurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff