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Ajax Amateurs vs FC Lisse — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Ajax Amateurs
Ajax Amateurs
CANC
12:30
FC Lisse
FC Lisse
4/10/2021Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ajax Amateurs35%
×Draw24%
FC Lisse41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax Amateurs
1.45
FC Lisse
1.61

FC Lisse creates 11% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 32 away

creates per match

Ajax Amateurs
1.59
FC Lisse
1.56

allows per match

Ajax Amateurs
1.67
FC Lisse
1.31

finishing

Ajax Amateurs+0.00on par
FC Lisse+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax Amateurs ↓

FC Lisse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ajax Amateurs or draw
59%
Ajax Amateurs or FC Lisse
76%
Draw or FC Lisse
65%

Winning margin

Ajax Amateurs wins by 2+
16%
FC Lisse wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Ajax Amateurs 1+ goals
77%
Ajax Amateurs 2+ goals
42%
Ajax Amateurs 3+ goals
18%
FC Lisse 1+ goals
80%
FC Lisse 2+ goals
48%
FC Lisse 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Ajax Amateurs (draw refunded)
45%
FC Lisse (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax Amateurs at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.67 · 46 matches

FC Lisse away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax Amateurs attack 1.59 + FC Lisse defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.45

FC Lisse attack 1.56 + Ajax Amateurs defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ajax Amateurs scores more
35%
level
24%
FC Lisse scores more
41%

FC Lisse at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Lisse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ajax Amateurs face FC Lisse (Derde Divisie - Saturday)

Derde Divisie - Saturday returns with Ajax Amateurs hosting FC Lisse. Match starts April 10, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.