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Ajax Amateurs vs Excelsior '31 — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Ajax Amateurs
Ajax Amateurs
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Excelsior '31
Excelsior '31
4/18/2022Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 26Sportpark De Toekomst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Ajax Amateurs40%
×Draw24%
Excelsior '3137%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax Amateurs
1.62
Excelsior '31
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 81 away

creates per match

Ajax Amateurs
1.59
Excelsior '31
1.43

allows per match

Ajax Amateurs
1.67
Excelsior '31
1.65

finishing

Ajax Amateurs+0.00on par
Excelsior '31+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax Amateurs ↓

Excelsior '31 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ajax Amateurs or draw
63%
Ajax Amateurs or Excelsior '31
76%
Draw or Excelsior '31
60%

Winning margin

Ajax Amateurs wins by 2+
20%
Excelsior '31 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ajax Amateurs 1+ goals
80%
Ajax Amateurs 2+ goals
48%
Ajax Amateurs 3+ goals
22%
Excelsior '31 1+ goals
79%
Excelsior '31 2+ goals
46%
Excelsior '31 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Ajax Amateurs (draw refunded)
52%
Excelsior '31 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax Amateurs at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.67 · 46 matches

Excelsior '31 away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.65 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax Amateurs attack 1.59 + Excelsior '31 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.62

Excelsior '31 attack 1.43 + Ajax Amateurs defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ajax Amateurs scores more
40%
level
24%
Excelsior '31 scores more
37%

Ajax Amateurs at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ajax Amateurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Ajax Amateurs 0–1 Excelsior '31

Excelsior '31 beat Ajax Amateurs 1-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on April 18, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark De Toekomst in Amsterdam-Duivendrecht.