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Ajax Amateurs vs DVS 33 Ermelo — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Ajax Amateurs
Ajax Amateurs
CANC
13:30
DVS 33 Ermelo
DVS 33 Ermelo
12/12/2020Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 15Sportpark De Toekomst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Ajax Amateurs37%
×Draw24%
DVS 33 Ermelo39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax Amateurs
1.55
DVS 33 Ermelo
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 100 away

creates per match

Ajax Amateurs
1.59
DVS 33 Ermelo
1.54

allows per match

Ajax Amateurs
1.67
DVS 33 Ermelo
1.51

finishing

Ajax Amateurs+0.00on par
DVS 33 Ermelo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax Amateurs ↓

DVS 33 Ermelo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ajax Amateurs or draw
61%
Ajax Amateurs or DVS 33 Ermelo
76%
Draw or DVS 33 Ermelo
63%

Winning margin

Ajax Amateurs wins by 2+
18%
DVS 33 Ermelo wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ajax Amateurs 1+ goals
79%
Ajax Amateurs 2+ goals
46%
Ajax Amateurs 3+ goals
20%
DVS 33 Ermelo 1+ goals
80%
DVS 33 Ermelo 2+ goals
47%
DVS 33 Ermelo 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Ajax Amateurs (draw refunded)
49%
DVS 33 Ermelo (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax Amateurs at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.67 · 46 matches

DVS 33 Ermelo away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.51 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax Amateurs attack 1.59 + DVS 33 Ermelo defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.55

DVS 33 Ermelo attack 1.54 + Ajax Amateurs defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ajax Amateurs scores more
37%
level
24%
DVS 33 Ermelo scores more
39%

DVS 33 Ermelo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "DVS 33 Ermelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ajax Amateurs host DVS 33 Ermelo

December 12, 2020: Ajax Amateurs take on DVS 33 Ermelo in Derde Divisie - Saturday. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Ajax Amateurs host DVS 33 Ermelo at Sportpark De Toekomst.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.