Ajax Amateurs 2–0 DEM: Result & Stats

Ajax Amateurs

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

DEM

9/7/2024

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 4Sportpark De Toekomst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ajax Amateurs48%

×Draw22%

DEM30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ajax AmateursExpected goals in this matchDEM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.46

Ajax Amateurs

1.89

DEM

1.46

Ajax Amateurs creates 29% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 34 away

1.59

creates per match

1.26

1.67

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Ajax Amateurs

1.59

DEM

1.26

allows per match

Ajax Amateurs

1.67

DEM

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ajax Amateurs+0.00on par

DEM+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax Amateurs ↓

DEM →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Ajax Amateurs or draw

70%

Ajax Amateurs or DEM

78%

Draw or DEM

52%

Winning margin

Ajax Amateurs wins by 2+

26%

DEM wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ajax Amateurs 1+ goals

85%

Ajax Amateurs 2+ goals

56%

Ajax Amateurs 3+ goals

29%

DEM 1+ goals

77%

DEM 2+ goals

43%

DEM 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Ajax Amateurs (draw refunded)

61%

DEM (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax Amateurs at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.67 · 46 matches

DEM away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax Amateurs attack 1.59 + DEM defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.89

DEM attack 1.26 + Ajax Amateurs defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ajax Amateurs scores more

48%

level

22%

DEM scores more

30%

Ajax Amateurs at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ajax Amateurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff