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Ajax Amateurs vs Almere City II — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Ajax Amateurs
Ajax Amateurs
CANC
00:00
Almere City II
Almere City II
3/28/2020Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 27Sportpark De Toekomst (Amsterdam-Duivendrecht)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ajax Amateurs39%
×Draw22%
Almere City II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax Amateurs
1.84
Almere City II
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 11 away

creates per match

Ajax Amateurs
1.59
Almere City II
2.00

allows per match

Ajax Amateurs
1.67
Almere City II
2.09

finishing

Ajax Amateurs+0.00on par
Almere City II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax Amateurs ↓

Almere City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Ajax Amateurs or draw
61%
Ajax Amateurs or Almere City II
78%
Draw or Almere City II
61%

Winning margin

Ajax Amateurs wins by 2+
21%
Almere City II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Ajax Amateurs 1+ goals
84%
Ajax Amateurs 2+ goals
55%
Ajax Amateurs 3+ goals
28%
Almere City II 1+ goals
84%
Almere City II 2+ goals
54%
Almere City II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Ajax Amateurs (draw refunded)
50%
Almere City II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax Amateurs at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.67 · 46 matches

Almere City II away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax Amateurs attack 1.59 + Almere City II defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.84

Almere City II attack 2.00 + Ajax Amateurs defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ajax Amateurs scores more
39%
level
22%
Almere City II scores more
39%

Ajax Amateurs at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ajax Amateurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ajax Amateurs host Almere City II

March 28, 2020: Ajax Amateurs take on Almere City II in Derde Divisie - Saturday. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Ajax Amateurs host Almere City II at Sportpark De Toekomst (Amsterdam-Duivendrecht).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.