Ajaccio 2–1 Valenciennes: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Ajaccio

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Valenciennes

12/19/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 19Stade François Coty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Ajaccio47%

×Draw29%

Valenciennes24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AjaccioExpected goals in this matchValenciennes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.84

Ajaccio

1.29

Valenciennes

0.84

Ajaccio creates 54% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 108 away

1.16

creates per match

0.90

0.79

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Ajaccio

1.16

Valenciennes

0.90

allows per match

Ajaccio

0.79

Valenciennes

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ajaccio+0.00on par

Valenciennes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajaccio ↓

Valenciennes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ajaccio or draw

76%

Ajaccio or Valenciennes

71%

Draw or Valenciennes

53%

Winning margin

Ajaccio wins by 2+

22%

Valenciennes wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ajaccio 1+ goals

72%

Ajaccio 2+ goals

37%

Ajaccio 3+ goals

14%

Valenciennes 1+ goals

57%

Valenciennes 2+ goals

21%

Valenciennes 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ajaccio (draw refunded)

66%

Valenciennes (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajaccio at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.79 · 106 matches

Valenciennes away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.43 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajaccio attack 1.16 + Valenciennes defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

Valenciennes attack 0.90 + Ajaccio defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ajaccio scores more

47%

level

29%

Valenciennes scores more

24%

Ajaccio at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ajaccio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff