Ajaccio 2–1 Estac Troyes: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Ajaccio

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Estac Troyes

2/26/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 25Stade François Coty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ajaccio38%

×Draw26%

Estac Troyes37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AjaccioExpected goals in this matchEstac Troyes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.37

Ajaccio

1.39

Estac Troyes

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

0.53

creates per match

1.16

1.58

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Ajaccio

0.53

Estac Troyes

1.16

allows per match

Ajaccio

1.58

Estac Troyes

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ajaccio+0.00on par

Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajaccio ↓

Estac Troyes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ajaccio or draw

63%

Ajaccio or Estac Troyes

74%

Draw or Estac Troyes

62%

Winning margin

Ajaccio wins by 2+

17%

Estac Troyes wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Ajaccio 1+ goals

75%

Ajaccio 2+ goals

40%

Ajaccio 3+ goals

16%

Estac Troyes 1+ goals

75%

Estac Troyes 2+ goals

40%

Estac Troyes 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Ajaccio (draw refunded)

51%

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajaccio at home — creates 0.53, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

Estac Troyes away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.24 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajaccio attack 0.53 + Estac Troyes defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.39

Estac Troyes attack 1.16 + Ajaccio defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ajaccio scores more

38%

level

26%

Estac Troyes scores more

37%

Ajaccio at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ajaccio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff