Ajaccio 0–1 Bastia: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Ajaccio

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bastia

3/12/2022

Ligue 2 · Round 28Stade François Coty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Ajaccio44%

×Draw29%

Bastia27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AjaccioExpected goals in this matchBastia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.92

Ajaccio

1.25

Bastia

0.92

Ajaccio creates 36% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 91 away

1.17

creates per match

1.03

0.81

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Ajaccio

1.17

Bastia

1.03

allows per match

Ajaccio

0.81

Bastia

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ajaccio+0.00on par

Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajaccio ↓

Bastia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ajaccio or draw

73%

Ajaccio or Bastia

71%

Draw or Bastia

56%

Winning margin

Ajaccio wins by 2+

20%

Bastia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ajaccio 1+ goals

71%

Ajaccio 2+ goals

36%

Ajaccio 3+ goals

13%

Bastia 1+ goals

60%

Bastia 2+ goals

23%

Bastia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ajaccio (draw refunded)

62%

Bastia (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajaccio at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.81 · 107 matches

Bastia away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.33 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajaccio attack 1.17 + Bastia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bastia attack 1.03 + Ajaccio defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ajaccio scores more

44%

level

29%

Bastia scores more

27%

Ajaccio at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ajaccio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff