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Ajaccio vs Arles — Ligue 2 2010

Ajaccio
Ajaccio
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Arles
Arles
H. Videmont 52'
N. Fauvergue 13'
F. Cissé 65'
5/22/2015Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 38Stade François Coty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Ajaccio50%
×Draw28%
Arles22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajaccio
1.36
Arles
0.79

Ajaccio creates 72% more chances

Season form · 191 home / 76 away

creates per match

Ajaccio
1.29
Arles
0.78

allows per match

Ajaccio
0.80
Arles
1.43

finishing

Ajaccio+0.00on par
Arles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 64Over: 3664%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 59Yes: 4159%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajaccio ↓

Arles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ajaccio or draw
78%
Ajaccio or Arles
72%
Draw or Arles
50%

Winning margin

Ajaccio wins by 2+
24%
Arles wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ajaccio 1+ goals
74%
Ajaccio 2+ goals
39%
Ajaccio 3+ goals
16%
Arles 1+ goals
55%
Arles 2+ goals
19%
Arles 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ajaccio (draw refunded)
70%
Arles (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajaccio at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.80 · 191 matches

Arles away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.43 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajaccio attack 1.29 + Arles defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.36

Arles attack 0.78 + Ajaccio defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ajaccio scores more
50%
level
28%
Arles scores more
22%

Ajaccio at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ajaccio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
N. Fauvergue
45'
Johan Cavalli
52'
H. Videmont
65'
F. Cissé
75'
Wilfiried Domoraud
84'
Guillaume Fannuchi
90'
Nicolas Fauvergue
90'
Nicolas Fauvergue
90'
Nicolas Fauvergue

Possession

Ajaccio: 53Arles: 4753%Ajaccio

Shots

Ajaccio: 7Arles: 77Ajaccio

Statistics

AjaccioArles
Overview
53%Possession47%
7Total Shots7
4Corners4
17Fouls9
Shots
7Total Shots7
3On Target5
4Off Target2
Passing
53%Possession47%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
17Fouls9
3Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Ajaccio vs Arles

Ajaccio beat Arles 2-1 in Ligue 2 on May 22, 2015.

Goals: N. Fauvergue (13'), H. Videmont (52'), F. Cissé (65').

Ajaccio controlled possession (53%) and registered 7 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stade François Coty in Ajaccio.