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Aizawl vs Sreenidi Deccan — I-League 2019

Aizawl
Aizawl
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Sreenidi Deccan
Sreenidi Deccan
2/19/2024I-LeagueI-League · Round 16Rajiv Gandhi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Aizawl34%
×Draw25%
Sreenidi Deccan40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aizawl
1.32
Sreenidi Deccan
1.46

Sreenidi Deccan creates 11% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 51 away

creates per match

Aizawl
1.40
Sreenidi Deccan
1.59

allows per match

Aizawl
1.33
Sreenidi Deccan
1.25

finishing

Aizawl+0.00on par
Sreenidi Deccan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aizawl ↓

Sreenidi Deccan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Aizawl or draw
60%
Aizawl or Sreenidi Deccan
75%
Draw or Sreenidi Deccan
66%

Winning margin

Aizawl wins by 2+
15%
Sreenidi Deccan wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Aizawl 1+ goals
73%
Aizawl 2+ goals
38%
Aizawl 3+ goals
15%
Sreenidi Deccan 1+ goals
77%
Sreenidi Deccan 2+ goals
43%
Sreenidi Deccan 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Aizawl (draw refunded)
46%
Sreenidi Deccan (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aizawl at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

Sreenidi Deccan away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aizawl attack 1.40 + Sreenidi Deccan defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Sreenidi Deccan attack 1.59 + Aizawl defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Aizawl scores more
34%
level
25%
Sreenidi Deccan scores more
40%

Sreenidi Deccan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sreenidi Deccan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: Aizawl 1–5 Sreenidi Deccan

Sreenidi Deccan beat Aizawl 5-1 in I-League on February 19, 2024.

The match was played at Rajiv Gandhi Stadium in Aizawl.