Aizawl 1–1 Real Kashmir: Result & Stats | I-League

Aizawl

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Kashmir

12/18/2024

I-League · Round 6Rajiv Gandhi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Aizawl37%

×Draw27%

Real Kashmir36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AizawlExpected goals in this matchReal Kashmir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.23

Aizawl

1.27

Real Kashmir

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

1.40

creates per match

1.12

1.33

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Aizawl

1.40

Real Kashmir

1.12

allows per match

Aizawl

1.33

Real Kashmir

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aizawl+0.00on par

Real Kashmir+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aizawl ↓

Real Kashmir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Aizawl or draw

64%

Aizawl or Real Kashmir

73%

Draw or Real Kashmir

63%

Winning margin

Aizawl wins by 2+

16%

Real Kashmir wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Aizawl 1+ goals

72%

Aizawl 2+ goals

36%

Aizawl 3+ goals

14%

Real Kashmir 1+ goals

71%

Real Kashmir 2+ goals

35%

Real Kashmir 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Aizawl (draw refunded)

51%

Real Kashmir (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aizawl at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

Real Kashmir away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.15 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aizawl attack 1.40 + Real Kashmir defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.27

Real Kashmir attack 1.12 + Aizawl defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Aizawl scores more

37%

level

27%

Real Kashmir scores more

36%

Aizawl at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Aizawl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff