Aizawl 3–2 Real Kashmir: Result & Stats | I-League

Aizawl

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Real Kashmir

W. Plaza 69', 2'

N. Kumar 36' (OG)

M. Robertson 60', 58'

4/22/2022

I-League · Relegation Round - 1Naihati Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Aizawl38%

×Draw27%

Real Kashmir35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AizawlExpected goals in this matchReal Kashmir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.22

Aizawl

1.27

Real Kashmir

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 61 away

1.37

creates per match

1.13

1.31

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Aizawl

1.37

Real Kashmir

1.13

allows per match

Aizawl

1.31

Real Kashmir

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aizawl+0.00on par

Real Kashmir+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aizawl ↓

Real Kashmir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Aizawl or draw

65%

Aizawl or Real Kashmir

73%

Draw or Real Kashmir

62%

Winning margin

Aizawl wins by 2+

17%

Real Kashmir wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Aizawl 1+ goals

72%

Aizawl 2+ goals

36%

Aizawl 3+ goals

14%

Real Kashmir 1+ goals

70%

Real Kashmir 2+ goals

34%

Real Kashmir 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Aizawl (draw refunded)

52%

Real Kashmir (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aizawl at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.31 · 59 matches

Real Kashmir away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.16 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aizawl attack 1.37 + Real Kashmir defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Real Kashmir attack 1.13 + Aizawl defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Aizawl scores more

38%

level

27%

Real Kashmir scores more

35%

Aizawl at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Aizawl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

W. Plaza↳ Vanlalnghenga

36'

N. KumarOwn goal

46'

R. Bawlte← B. Kouassi

46'

M. Meitei← R. Gupta

46'

Bikramjit Singh← S. Kynshi

52'

P. Sarkar

58'

M. Robertson↳ Bikramjit Singh

60'

M. Robertson↳ R. Bawlte

66'

P. Tuboi

67'

Ramhlunchhunga

69'

W. Plaza↳ L. Fanai

71'

J. Vanlalalhruaia← A. Chhetri

71'

D. Lalhlansanga← A. Dipanda

72'

Bhupender Singh← M. Meitei

78'

Lalchhawnkima

88'

Lalengmawia← W. Plaza

89'

Lalliansanga← Ramhlunchhunga

90+1'

F. Gonzalez

90+3'

L. Ralte← J. Vanlalalhruaia

Aizawl

Real

22

🥅

Kumar

13

Lalchhawn

3

⚽2

2

18

16

50

55

26

▼

Kynshi

28

▼

Gupta

29

▼

1

21

4

43

A

Vanlalngh

26

Lalmalsaw

15

Lalmuanpu

11

▼

Chhetri

9

⚽2

▼

Plaza

10

▼

Dipanda

14

A

Fanai

17

▼

Ramhlunch

Manager: Y. Law

71'▲J. Vanlalalhruaia←▼A. Chhetri

71'▲D. Lalhlansanga←▼A. Dipanda

88'▲Lalengmawia←▼W. Plaza

89'▲Lalliansanga←▼Ramhlunchhunga

90+3'▲L. Ralte←▼J. Vanlalalhruaia

Aizawl substitutes

8Vanlalalhruaia19Lalhlansanga18Lalengmawia99Lalliansanga24Ralte5Lalhmunmawia7Mali16Lalfelkima3Lallawmawma31Lalmuansanga

Manager: D. Robertson

46'▲R. Bawlte←▼B. Kouassi

46'▲M. Meitei←▼R. Gupta

46'▲Bikramjit Singh←▼S. Kynshi

72'▲Bhupender Singh←▼M. Meitei

Real Kashmir substitutes

8Bawlte14Meitei23Singh7Singh21Ralte19Shimray27Reamsochung1Khan6Sarkar24Mir