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Aizawl vs Mohun Bagan — I-League 2019

Aizawl
Aizawl
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mohun Bagan
Mohun Bagan
11/30/2019I-LeagueI-League · Round 1Rajiv Gandhi Stadium (Aizawl)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Aizawl21%
×Draw24%
Mohun Bagan55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aizawl
0.97
Mohun Bagan
1.73

Mohun Bagan creates 78% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 7 away

creates per match

Aizawl
1.37
Mohun Bagan
2.14

allows per match

Aizawl
1.32
Mohun Bagan
0.57

finishing

Aizawl+0.00on par
Mohun Bagan+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aizawl ↓

Mohun Bagan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Aizawl or draw
45%
Aizawl or Mohun Bagan
76%
Draw or Mohun Bagan
79%

Winning margin

Aizawl wins by 2+
7%
Mohun Bagan wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Aizawl 1+ goals
62%
Aizawl 2+ goals
25%
Aizawl 3+ goals
7%
Mohun Bagan 1+ goals
82%
Mohun Bagan 2+ goals
52%
Mohun Bagan 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Aizawl (draw refunded)
28%
Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aizawl at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.32 · 59 matches

Mohun Bagan away — creates 2.14, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aizawl attack 1.37 + Mohun Bagan defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.97

Mohun Bagan attack 2.14 + Aizawl defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Aizawl scores more
21%
level
24%
Mohun Bagan scores more
55%

Mohun Bagan at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mohun Bagan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: Aizawl 0–0 Mohun Bagan

Aizawl and Mohun Bagan drew 0-0 in I-League on November 30, 2019.

The match was played at Rajiv Gandhi Stadium (Aizawl).