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Aizawl vs Indian Arrows — I-League 2019

Aizawl
Aizawl
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Indian Arrows
Indian Arrows
1/24/2021I-LeagueI-League · Round 4Kalyani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Aizawl50%
×Draw27%
Indian Arrows23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aizawl
1.42
Indian Arrows
0.87

Aizawl creates 63% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 26 away

creates per match

Aizawl
1.37
Indian Arrows
0.42

allows per match

Aizawl
1.32
Indian Arrows
1.46

finishing

Aizawl+0.00on par
Indian Arrows+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aizawl ↓

Indian Arrows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Aizawl or draw
77%
Aizawl or Indian Arrows
73%
Draw or Indian Arrows
50%

Winning margin

Aizawl wins by 2+
25%
Indian Arrows wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Aizawl 1+ goals
76%
Aizawl 2+ goals
41%
Aizawl 3+ goals
17%
Indian Arrows 1+ goals
58%
Indian Arrows 2+ goals
22%
Indian Arrows 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Aizawl (draw refunded)
68%
Indian Arrows (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aizawl at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.32 · 59 matches

Indian Arrows away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aizawl attack 1.37 + Indian Arrows defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.42

Indian Arrows attack 0.42 + Aizawl defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Aizawl scores more
50%
level
27%
Indian Arrows scores more
23%

Aizawl at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Aizawl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aizawl vs Indian Arrows

Aizawl and Indian Arrows drew 1-1 in I-League on January 24, 2021.

The match was played at Kalyani Stadium in Kalyani.