Aizawl 1–1 Chennai City: Result & Stats | I-League

Aizawl

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Chennai City

12/17/2019

I-League · Round 4Rajiv Gandhi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Aizawl35%

×Draw25%

Chennai City40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AizawlExpected goals in this matchChennai City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.44

Aizawl

1.34

Chennai City

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 16 away

1.37

creates per match

1.56

1.32

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Aizawl

1.37

Chennai City

1.56

allows per match

Aizawl

1.32

Chennai City

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aizawl+0.00on par

Chennai City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aizawl ↓

Chennai City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Aizawl or draw

60%

Aizawl or Chennai City

75%

Draw or Chennai City

65%

Winning margin

Aizawl wins by 2+

16%

Chennai City wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Aizawl 1+ goals

74%

Aizawl 2+ goals

39%

Aizawl 3+ goals

15%

Chennai City 1+ goals

76%

Chennai City 2+ goals

42%

Chennai City 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Aizawl (draw refunded)

47%

Chennai City (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aizawl at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.32 · 59 matches

Chennai City away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aizawl attack 1.37 + Chennai City defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.34

Chennai City attack 1.56 + Aizawl defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Aizawl scores more

35%

level

25%

Chennai City scores more

40%

Chennai City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chennai City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff