Aische 7–1 SG-Tertre-Hautrage: Result & Stats

Aische

FT

7 – 1

SG-Tertre-Hautrage

11/19/2022

League #689 · ACFF A - 13Stade René Bertrand

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Aische52%

×Draw22%

SG-Tertre-Hautrage26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AischeExpected goals in this matchSG-Tertre-Hautrage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.31

Aische

1.94

SG-Tertre-Hautrage

1.31

Aische creates 48% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 23 away

2.67

creates per match

1.61

1.00

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Aische

2.67

SG-Tertre-Hautrage

1.61

allows per match

Aische

1.00

SG-Tertre-Hautrage

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aische+0.00on par

SG-Tertre-Hautrage+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aische ↓

SG-Tertre-Hautrage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Aische or draw

74%

Aische or SG-Tertre-Hautrage

78%

Draw or SG-Tertre-Hautrage

48%

Winning margin

Aische wins by 2+

30%

SG-Tertre-Hautrage wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Aische 1+ goals

86%

Aische 2+ goals

58%

Aische 3+ goals

30%

SG-Tertre-Hautrage 1+ goals

73%

SG-Tertre-Hautrage 2+ goals

38%

SG-Tertre-Hautrage 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Aische (draw refunded)

67%

SG-Tertre-Hautrage (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aische at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

SG-Tertre-Hautrage away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aische attack 2.67 + SG-Tertre-Hautrage defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.94

SG-Tertre-Hautrage attack 1.61 + Aische defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Aische scores more

52%

level

22%

SG-Tertre-Hautrage scores more

26%

Aische at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Aische will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff