Airdrie United 1–0 ST Johnstone: Result & Stats

Airdrie United

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

ST Johnstone

1/20/2024

FA Cup · 4th RoundExcelsior Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Airdrie United31%

×Draw28%

ST Johnstone40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Airdrie UnitedExpected goals in this matchST Johnstone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.23

Airdrie United

1.05

ST Johnstone

1.23

ST Johnstone creates 17% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.50

creates per match

1.20

1.25

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Airdrie United

1.50

ST Johnstone

1.20

allows per match

Airdrie United

1.25

ST Johnstone

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Airdrie United+0.00on par

ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Airdrie United ↓

ST Johnstone →

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Airdrie United or draw

60%

Airdrie United or ST Johnstone

72%

Draw or ST Johnstone

69%

Winning margin

Airdrie United wins by 2+

12%

ST Johnstone wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Airdrie United 1+ goals

65%

Airdrie United 2+ goals

28%

Airdrie United 3+ goals

ST Johnstone 1+ goals

71%

ST Johnstone 2+ goals

35%

ST Johnstone 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Airdrie United (draw refunded)

44%

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Airdrie United at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

ST Johnstone away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Airdrie United attack 1.50 + ST Johnstone defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.05

ST Johnstone attack 1.20 + Airdrie United defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Airdrie United scores more

31%

level

28%

ST Johnstone scores more

40%

ST Johnstone at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "ST Johnstone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff