Airdrie United 2–0 Motherwell: Result & Stats

Airdrie United

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Motherwell

7/21/2021

League Cup · Group Stage - 6Penny Cars Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Airdrie United42%

×Draw25%

Motherwell33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Airdrie UnitedExpected goals in this matchMotherwell

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.31

Airdrie United

1.51

Motherwell

1.31

Airdrie United creates 15% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

2.23

creates per match

1.71

0.92

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Airdrie United

2.23

Motherwell

1.71

allows per match

Airdrie United

0.92

Motherwell

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Airdrie United+0.00on par

Motherwell+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Airdrie United ↓

Motherwell →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Airdrie United or draw

67%

Airdrie United or Motherwell

75%

Draw or Motherwell

58%

Winning margin

Airdrie United wins by 2+

21%

Motherwell wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Airdrie United 1+ goals

78%

Airdrie United 2+ goals

44%

Airdrie United 3+ goals

19%

Motherwell 1+ goals

73%

Motherwell 2+ goals

38%

Motherwell 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Airdrie United (draw refunded)

56%

Motherwell (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Airdrie United at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Motherwell away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Airdrie United attack 2.23 + Motherwell defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.51

Motherwell attack 1.71 + Airdrie United defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Airdrie United scores more

42%

level

25%

Motherwell scores more

33%

Airdrie United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Airdrie United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff