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Airdrie United vs Hamilton Academical — League #183 2026

Airdrie United
Airdrie United
Preview
14:00
Hamilton Academical
Hamilton Academical
10/17/2026League #183League #183 · Round 11Albert Bartlett Stadium
Big match
48%
Airdrie United
model favours
48%21%31%

75% of Hamilton Academical’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
74%
over 2.5 goals
72%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Airdrie United48%
×Draw21%
Hamilton Academical31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Airdrie United
2.15
Hamilton Academical
1.69

Airdrie United creates 27% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

Airdrie United
2.75
Hamilton Academical
2.45

allows per match

Airdrie United
0.92
Hamilton Academical
1.55

finishing

Airdrie United+0.00on par
Hamilton Academical+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Airdrie United ↓

Hamilton Academical →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Airdrie United or draw
69%
Airdrie United or Hamilton Academical
79%
Draw or Hamilton Academical
52%

Winning margin

Airdrie United wins by 2+
28%
Hamilton Academical wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Airdrie United 1+ goals
88%
Airdrie United 2+ goals
63%
Airdrie United 3+ goals
36%
Hamilton Academical 1+ goals
82%
Hamilton Academical 2+ goals
50%
Hamilton Academical 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Airdrie United (draw refunded)
61%
Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Airdrie United at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Hamilton Academical away — creates 2.45, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Airdrie United attack 2.75 + Hamilton Academical defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 2.15

Hamilton Academical attack 2.45 + Airdrie United defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Airdrie United scores more
48%
level
21%
Hamilton Academical scores more
31%

Airdrie United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Airdrie United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Hamilton Academical score first in only 33% of matches
  • Both teams score in 75% of Hamilton Academical’s matches
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
United
WLLLL
Academical
LDWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Airdrie United face Hamilton Academical (League #183)

League #183 returns with Airdrie United hosting Hamilton Academical. Match starts October 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Airdrie United host Hamilton Academical at Albert Bartlett Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.