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Airdrie United vs Hamilton Academical — League #180 2026

Airdrie United
Airdrie United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hamilton Academical
Hamilton Academical
5/17/2023League #180League #180 · Relegation RoundExcelsior Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Airdrie United30%
×Draw24%
Hamilton Academical46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Airdrie United
1.29
Hamilton Academical
1.67

Hamilton Academical creates 29% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

creates per match

Airdrie United
0.75
Hamilton Academical
1.67

allows per match

Airdrie United
1.67
Hamilton Academical
1.83

finishing

Airdrie United+0.00on par
Hamilton Academical+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Airdrie United ↓

Hamilton Academical →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Airdrie United or draw
54%
Airdrie United or Hamilton Academical
76%
Draw or Hamilton Academical
70%

Winning margin

Airdrie United wins by 2+
13%
Hamilton Academical wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Airdrie United 1+ goals
72%
Airdrie United 2+ goals
37%
Airdrie United 3+ goals
14%
Hamilton Academical 1+ goals
81%
Hamilton Academical 2+ goals
50%
Hamilton Academical 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Airdrie United (draw refunded)
39%
Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Airdrie United at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

Hamilton Academical away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Airdrie United attack 0.75 + Hamilton Academical defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.29

Hamilton Academical attack 1.67 + Airdrie United defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Airdrie United scores more
30%
level
24%
Hamilton Academical scores more
46%

Hamilton Academical at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hamilton Academical will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Airdrie United vs Hamilton Academical

Airdrie United beat Hamilton Academical 1-0 in League #180 on May 17, 2023.

The match was played at Excelsior Stadium in Airdrie.