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Airdrie United vs East Kilbride — League Cup 2026

Airdrie United
Airdrie United
FT
8 – 0
HT: 6 – 0
East Kilbride
East Kilbride
7/16/2024League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 4Albert Bartlett Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Airdrie United66%
×Draw17%
East Kilbride16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Airdrie United
2.59
East Kilbride
1.22

Airdrie United creates 112% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

creates per match

Airdrie United
2.31
East Kilbride
1.75

allows per match

Airdrie United
0.69
East Kilbride
2.88

finishing

Airdrie United+0.00on par
East Kilbride+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Airdrie United ↓

East Kilbride →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Airdrie United or draw
84%
Airdrie United or East Kilbride
83%
Draw or East Kilbride
34%

Winning margin

Airdrie United wins by 2+
45%
East Kilbride wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Airdrie United 1+ goals
92%
Airdrie United 2+ goals
73%
Airdrie United 3+ goals
47%
East Kilbride 1+ goals
70%
East Kilbride 2+ goals
34%
East Kilbride 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Airdrie United (draw refunded)
80%
East Kilbride (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Airdrie United at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

East Kilbride away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Airdrie United attack 2.31 + East Kilbride defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.59

East Kilbride attack 1.75 + Airdrie United defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Airdrie United scores more
66%
level
17%
East Kilbride scores more
16%

Airdrie United at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Airdrie United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Airdrie United vs East Kilbride

Airdrie United beat East Kilbride 8-0 in League Cup on July 16, 2024.

The match was played at Albert Bartlett Stadium in Airdrie.