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Airdrie United vs Annan Athletic — League Cup 2026

Airdrie United
Airdrie United
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Annan Athletic
Annan Athletic
H. Lister 73'
A. Bridge 63'
K. Taylor 38'
7/18/2026League CupLeague Cup · Group StageAlbert Bartlett Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Airdrie United75%
×Draw15%
Annan Athletic10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Airdrie United
2.69
Annan Athletic
0.88

Airdrie United creates 206% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

creates per match

Airdrie United
2.31
Annan Athletic
1.07

allows per match

Airdrie United
0.69
Annan Athletic
3.07

finishing

Airdrie United+0.00on par
Annan Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Airdrie United ↓

Annan Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Airdrie United or draw
90%
Airdrie United or Annan Athletic
85%
Draw or Annan Athletic
25%

Winning margin

Airdrie United wins by 2+
54%
Annan Athletic wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Airdrie United 1+ goals
93%
Airdrie United 2+ goals
74%
Airdrie United 3+ goals
49%
Annan Athletic 1+ goals
59%
Annan Athletic 2+ goals
22%
Annan Athletic 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Airdrie United (draw refunded)
88%
Annan Athletic (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Airdrie United at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Annan Athletic away — creates 1.07, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Airdrie United attack 2.31 + Annan Athletic defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.69

Annan Athletic attack 1.07 + Airdrie United defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Airdrie United scores more
75%
level
15%
Annan Athletic scores more
10%

Airdrie United at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Airdrie United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
C. Ross
38'
K. Taylor↳ A. Devine
46'
R. Mahon← A. Devine
63'
A. Bridge↳ G. Gallagher
66'
C. Clark
70'
B. McDermott← C. Cooper
70'
A. Roy← K. McKnight
73'
H. Lister↳ G. Gallagher
77'
C. Williams← G. Gallagher
79'
L. Connolly← J. Dixon
85'
D. Iserhienrhien← K. Taylor
88'
D. Williams← M. Yates

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Airdrie United vs Annan Athletic

Airdrie United beat Annan Athletic 3-0 in League Cup on July 18, 2026.

Goals: K. Taylor (38'), A. Bridge (63'), H. Lister (73').

The match was played at Albert Bartlett Stadium in Airdrie.