Airdrie United 2–3 Alloa Athletic: Result & Stats

Airdrie United

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Alloa Athletic

E. Henderson 62' (pen)

A. Wilson 51'

S. Buchanan 89'

S. Taggart 64' (pen)

O. Foster 29'

7/26/2025

League Cup · Group Stage - 5Albert Bartlett Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Airdrie United66%

×Draw18%

Alloa Athletic16%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Airdrie UnitedExpected goals in this matchAlloa Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.16

Airdrie United

2.48

Alloa Athletic

1.16

Airdrie United creates 114% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

2.86

creates per match

1.89

0.43

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Airdrie United

2.86

Alloa Athletic

1.89

allows per match

Airdrie United

0.43

Alloa Athletic

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Airdrie United+0.00on par

Alloa Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Airdrie United ↓

Alloa Athletic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Airdrie United or draw

84%

Airdrie United or Alloa Athletic

82%

Draw or Alloa Athletic

34%

Winning margin

Airdrie United wins by 2+

44%

Alloa Athletic wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Airdrie United 1+ goals

92%

Airdrie United 2+ goals

70%

Airdrie United 3+ goals

44%

Alloa Athletic 1+ goals

69%

Alloa Athletic 2+ goals

32%

Alloa Athletic 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Airdrie United (draw refunded)

80%

Alloa Athletic (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Airdrie United at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

Alloa Athletic away — creates 1.89, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Airdrie United attack 2.86 + Alloa Athletic defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.48

Alloa Athletic attack 1.89 + Airdrie United defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Airdrie United scores more

66%

level

18%

Alloa Athletic scores more

16%

Airdrie United at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Airdrie United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

A. King

29'

O. Foster↳ S. Buchanan

46'

G. Gallagher← D. McMaster

51'

A. Wilson

56'

J. Barjonas

57'

C. Ross← A. Wilson

62'

E. HendersonPenalty

64'

S. TaggartPenalty

65'

K. Orsi← L. Rankin

71'

C. Sammon← K. Roberts

78'

E. Henderson

78'

D. Williams← L. McStravick

83'

A. Clarke← S. Scougall

89'

S. Buchanan

Airdrie

Alloa

31

McFarlane

24

⚽

Foster

3

Waters

2

⚽

Taggart

23

Devine

12

▼

Scougall

4

Hethering

8

▼

Roberts

19

⚽A

Buchanan

10

▼

20

20

2

22

6

▼

McMaster

5

⚽

▼

4

17

18

7

10

▼

McStravic

11

⚽

Henderson

Manager: Danny Lennon

46'▲G. Gallagher←▼D. McMaster

57'▲C. Ross←▼A. Wilson

78'▲D. Williams←▼L. McStravick

Airdrie United substitutes

8Gallagher15McCabe16Ross21Cooper31Williams32Williams34Aird43Hutton

Manager: Andrew Graham

65'▲K. Orsi←▼L. Rankin

71'▲C. Sammon←▼K. Roberts

83'▲A. Clarke←▼S. Scougall

Alloa Athletic substitutes

1Ogayi7Clarke11Orsi15McKay16Church18Sammon22Mullen25Watkins26Bruin

Match Recap: Airdrie United vs Alloa Athletic

Alloa Athletic beat Airdrie United 3-2 in League Cup on July 26, 2025.

Goals: O. Foster (29'), A. Wilson (51'), E. Henderson (62' pen), S. Taggart (64' pen), S. Buchanan (89').

The match was played at Albert Bartlett Stadium in Airdrie.

Airdrie United vs Alloa Athletic — League Cup 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Airdrie United vs Alloa Athletic