Air Force Central FC 0–1 Customs United

Air Force Central FC

FT

0 – 1

Customs United

5/29/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 15Thupatemee Stadium (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Air Force Central FC46%

×Draw25%

Customs United29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Air Force Central FCExpected goals in this matchCustoms United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.21

Air Force Central FC

1.60

Customs United

1.21

Air Force Central FC creates 32% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 87 away

1.35

creates per match

1.06

1.35

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Air Force Central FC

1.35

Customs United

1.06

allows per match

Air Force Central FC

1.35

Customs United

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Air Force Central FC+0.00on par

Customs United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Air Force Central FC ↓

Customs United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Air Force Central FC or draw

71%

Air Force Central FC or Customs United

75%

Draw or Customs United

54%

Winning margin

Air Force Central FC wins by 2+

24%

Customs United wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Air Force Central FC 1+ goals

80%

Air Force Central FC 2+ goals

47%

Air Force Central FC 3+ goals

22%

Customs United 1+ goals

70%

Customs United 2+ goals

34%

Customs United 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Air Force Central FC (draw refunded)

62%

Customs United (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Air Force Central FC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Customs United away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.85 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Air Force Central FC attack 1.35 + Customs United defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.60

Customs United attack 1.06 + Air Force Central FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Air Force Central FC scores more

46%

level

25%

Customs United scores more

29%

Air Force Central FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Air Force Central FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff