Air Force Central FC 0–1 Ayutthaya FC

Air Force Central FC

FT

0 – 1

Ayutthaya FC

5/19/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 13Thupatemee Stadium (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Air Force Central FC38%

×Draw26%

Ayutthaya FC36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Air Force Central FCExpected goals in this matchAyutthaya FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.30

Air Force Central FC

1.36

Ayutthaya FC

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 101 away

1.35

creates per match

1.25

1.35

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Air Force Central FC

1.35

Ayutthaya FC

1.25

allows per match

Air Force Central FC

1.35

Ayutthaya FC

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Air Force Central FC+0.00on par

Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Air Force Central FC ↓

Ayutthaya FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Air Force Central FC or draw

64%

Air Force Central FC or Ayutthaya FC

74%

Draw or Ayutthaya FC

62%

Winning margin

Air Force Central FC wins by 2+

18%

Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Air Force Central FC 1+ goals

74%

Air Force Central FC 2+ goals

39%

Air Force Central FC 3+ goals

16%

Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals

73%

Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals

37%

Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Air Force Central FC (draw refunded)

52%

Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Air Force Central FC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Ayutthaya FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Air Force Central FC attack 1.35 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.36

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.25 + Air Force Central FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Air Force Central FC scores more

38%

level

26%

Ayutthaya FC scores more

36%

Air Force Central FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Air Force Central FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff