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Aïnonvi vs Police — Championnat National 2019

Aïnonvi
Aïnonvi
FT
2 – 1
Police
Police
11/5/2023Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 4Stade René Pleven d'Akpakpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Aïnonvi44%
×Draw31%
Police25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aïnonvi
1.15
Police
0.78

Aïnonvi creates 47% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 75 away

creates per match

Aïnonvi
0.69
Police
0.88

allows per match

Aïnonvi
0.69
Police
1.61

finishing

Aïnonvi+0.00on par
Police+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aïnonvi ↓

Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Aïnonvi or draw
75%
Aïnonvi or Police
69%
Draw or Police
56%

Winning margin

Aïnonvi wins by 2+
19%
Police wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Aïnonvi 1+ goals
68%
Aïnonvi 2+ goals
32%
Aïnonvi 3+ goals
11%
Police 1+ goals
54%
Police 2+ goals
18%
Police 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Aïnonvi (draw refunded)
64%
Police (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aïnonvi at home — creates 0.69, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Police away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.61 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aïnonvi attack 0.69 + Police defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.15

Police attack 0.88 + Aïnonvi defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Aïnonvi scores more
44%
level
31%
Police scores more
25%

Aïnonvi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Aïnonvi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aïnonvi vs Police

Aïnonvi beat Police 2-1 in Championnat National on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stade René Pleven d'Akpakpa in Cotonou.