Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aïnonvi vs JSO — Championnat National 2019

Aïnonvi
Aïnonvi
FT
1 – 0
JSO
JSO
4/17/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Relegation Round - 6Stade Saint-Louis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Aïnonvi45%
×Draw33%
JSO21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aïnonvi
1.04
JSO
0.61

Aïnonvi creates 70% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 35 away

creates per match

Aïnonvi
0.69
JSO
0.54

allows per match

Aïnonvi
0.69
JSO
1.40

finishing

Aïnonvi+0.00on par
JSO+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aïnonvi ↓

JSO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Aïnonvi or draw
79%
Aïnonvi or JSO
67%
Draw or JSO
55%

Winning margin

Aïnonvi wins by 2+
18%
JSO wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Aïnonvi 1+ goals
65%
Aïnonvi 2+ goals
28%
Aïnonvi 3+ goals
9%
JSO 1+ goals
46%
JSO 2+ goals
13%
JSO 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Aïnonvi (draw refunded)
68%
JSO (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aïnonvi at home — creates 0.69, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

JSO away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.40 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aïnonvi attack 0.69 + JSO defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.04

JSO attack 0.54 + Aïnonvi defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aïnonvi scores more
45%
level
33%
JSO scores more
21%

Aïnonvi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Aïnonvi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Aïnonvi 1 – 0 JSO

Aïnonvi beat JSO 1-0 in Championnat National on April 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Saint-Louis in Seme-Kpodji.