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Aïnonvi vs JAK — Championnat National 2019

Aïnonvi
Aïnonvi
FT
0 – 1
JAK
JAK
5/12/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Relegation Round - 10Stade Saint-Louis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Aïnonvi42%
×Draw33%
JAK25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aïnonvi
1.03
JAK
0.71

Aïnonvi creates 45% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 49 away

creates per match

Aïnonvi
0.69
JAK
0.73

allows per match

Aïnonvi
0.69
JAK
1.37

finishing

Aïnonvi+0.00on par
JAK+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aïnonvi ↓

JAK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Aïnonvi or draw
75%
Aïnonvi or JAK
67%
Draw or JAK
58%

Winning margin

Aïnonvi wins by 2+
17%
JAK wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Aïnonvi 1+ goals
64%
Aïnonvi 2+ goals
28%
Aïnonvi 3+ goals
9%
JAK 1+ goals
51%
JAK 2+ goals
16%
JAK 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Aïnonvi (draw refunded)
63%
JAK (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aïnonvi at home — creates 0.69, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

JAK away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aïnonvi attack 0.69 + JAK defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.03

JAK attack 0.73 + Aïnonvi defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Aïnonvi scores more
42%
level
33%
JAK scores more
25%

Aïnonvi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Aïnonvi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aïnonvi vs JAK

JAK beat Aïnonvi 1-0 in Championnat National on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Saint-Louis in Seme-Kpodji.