Aïnonvi 1–0 Etoile Filante: Result & Stats

Aïnonvi

FT

1 – 0

Etoile Filante

12/6/2023

Championnat National · Round 10Stade Saint-Louis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Aïnonvi44%

×Draw34%

Etoile Filante22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AïnonviExpected goals in this matchEtoile Filante

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.60

Aïnonvi

1.00

Etoile Filante

0.60

Aïnonvi creates 67% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 29 away

0.69

creates per match

0.52

0.69

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Aïnonvi

0.69

Etoile Filante

0.52

allows per match

Aïnonvi

0.69

Etoile Filante

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aïnonvi+0.00on par

Etoile Filante+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aïnonvi ↓

Etoile Filante →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Aïnonvi or draw

78%

Aïnonvi or Etoile Filante

66%

Draw or Etoile Filante

56%

Winning margin

Aïnonvi wins by 2+

17%

Etoile Filante wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Aïnonvi 1+ goals

63%

Aïnonvi 2+ goals

26%

Aïnonvi 3+ goals

8%

Etoile Filante 1+ goals

45%

Etoile Filante 2+ goals

12%

Etoile Filante 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Aïnonvi (draw refunded)

67%

Etoile Filante (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aïnonvi at home — creates 0.69, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Etoile Filante away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aïnonvi attack 0.69 + Etoile Filante defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.00

Etoile Filante attack 0.52 + Aïnonvi defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Aïnonvi scores more

44%

level

34%

Etoile Filante scores more

22%

Aïnonvi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Aïnonvi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff