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Aïnonvi vs Coton Sport Ouidah — Championnat National 2019

Aïnonvi
Aïnonvi
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Coton Sport Ouidah
Coton Sport Ouidah
12/2/2023Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 9Stade Saint-Louis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Aïnonvi27%
×Draw35%
Coton Sport Ouidah39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aïnonvi
0.71
Coton Sport Ouidah
0.92

Coton Sport Ouidah creates 30% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 94 away

creates per match

Aïnonvi
0.69
Coton Sport Ouidah
1.16

allows per match

Aïnonvi
0.69
Coton Sport Ouidah
0.73

finishing

Aïnonvi+0.00on par
Coton Sport Ouidah+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aïnonvi ↓

Coton Sport Ouidah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–118%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Aïnonvi or draw
61%
Aïnonvi or Coton Sport Ouidah
65%
Draw or Coton Sport Ouidah
73%

Winning margin

Aïnonvi wins by 2+
8%
Coton Sport Ouidah wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Aïnonvi 1+ goals
51%
Aïnonvi 2+ goals
16%
Aïnonvi 3+ goals
4%
Coton Sport Ouidah 1+ goals
60%
Coton Sport Ouidah 2+ goals
23%
Coton Sport Ouidah 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Aïnonvi (draw refunded)
41%
Coton Sport Ouidah (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aïnonvi at home — creates 0.69, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Coton Sport Ouidah away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.73 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aïnonvi attack 0.69 + Coton Sport Ouidah defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.71

Coton Sport Ouidah attack 1.16 + Aïnonvi defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Aïnonvi scores more
27%
level
35%
Coton Sport Ouidah scores more
39%

Coton Sport Ouidah at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Coton Sport Ouidah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aïnonvi vs Coton Sport Ouidah

Aïnonvi and Coton Sport Ouidah drew 0-0 in Championnat National on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Saint-Louis in Seme-Kpodji.