Aïnonvi 0–1 AS Cotonou: Result & Stats

Aïnonvi

FT

0 – 1

AS Cotonou

10/28/2023

Championnat National · Round 2Stade Saint-Louis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Aïnonvi33%

×Draw35%

AS Cotonou31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AïnonviExpected goals in this matchAS Cotonou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

0.78

Aïnonvi

0.82

AS Cotonou

0.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 113 away

0.69

creates per match

0.88

0.69

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Aïnonvi

0.69

AS Cotonou

0.88

allows per match

Aïnonvi

0.69

AS Cotonou

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aïnonvi+0.00on par

AS Cotonou+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aïnonvi ↓

AS Cotonou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–116%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Aïnonvi or draw

69%

Aïnonvi or AS Cotonou

65%

Draw or AS Cotonou

67%

Winning margin

Aïnonvi wins by 2+

11%

AS Cotonou wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Aïnonvi 1+ goals

56%

Aïnonvi 2+ goals

20%

Aïnonvi 3+ goals

5%

AS Cotonou 1+ goals

54%

AS Cotonou 2+ goals

18%

AS Cotonou 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Aïnonvi (draw refunded)

52%

AS Cotonou (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aïnonvi at home — creates 0.69, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

AS Cotonou away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.95 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aïnonvi attack 0.69 + AS Cotonou defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.82

AS Cotonou attack 0.88 + Aïnonvi defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Aïnonvi scores more

33%

level

35%

AS Cotonou scores more

31%

Aïnonvi at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Aïnonvi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff