Aïnonvi 1–2 Adjidja: Result & Stats

Aïnonvi

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Adjidja

11/12/2023

Championnat National · Round 6Stade René Pleven d'Akpakpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Aïnonvi39%

×Draw35%

Adjidja26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AïnonviExpected goals in this matchAdjidja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

0.67

Aïnonvi

0.91

Adjidja

0.67

Aïnonvi creates 36% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 75 away

0.69

creates per match

0.64

0.69

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Aïnonvi

0.69

Adjidja

0.64

allows per match

Aïnonvi

0.69

Adjidja

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aïnonvi+0.00on par

Adjidja+0.00on par

Total goals

Under79
Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aïnonvi ↓

Adjidja →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–021%

0–114%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

79%21%1.5

47%53%2.5

21%79%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Aïnonvi or draw

74%

Aïnonvi or Adjidja

65%

Draw or Adjidja

61%

Winning margin

Aïnonvi wins by 2+

14%

Adjidja wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Aïnonvi 1+ goals

60%

Aïnonvi 2+ goals

23%

Aïnonvi 3+ goals

6%

Adjidja 1+ goals

49%

Adjidja 2+ goals

15%

Adjidja 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Aïnonvi (draw refunded)

61%

Adjidja (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aïnonvi at home — creates 0.69, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Adjidja away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.13 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aïnonvi attack 0.69 + Adjidja defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.91

Adjidja attack 0.64 + Aïnonvi defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Aïnonvi scores more

39%

level

35%

Adjidja scores more

26%

Aïnonvi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Aïnonvi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff