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Aimoré vs São Paulo RS — Copa Gaúcha 2024

Aimoré
Aimoré
FT
8 – 0
São Paulo RS
São Paulo RS
9/26/2024Copa GaúchaCopa Gaúcha · 1st Phase - 3Estádio João Corrêa da Silveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Aimoré89%
×Draw7%
São Paulo RS3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aimoré
3.71
São Paulo RS
0.66

Aimoré creates 462% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

creates per match

Aimoré
1.91
São Paulo RS
0.50

allows per match

Aimoré
0.82
São Paulo RS
5.50

finishing

Aimoré+0.00on par
São Paulo RS+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aimoré ↓

São Paulo RS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–17%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Aimoré or draw
97%
Aimoré or São Paulo RS
93%
Draw or São Paulo RS
11%

Winning margin

Aimoré wins by 2+
75%
São Paulo RS wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Aimoré 1+ goals
97%
Aimoré 2+ goals
87%
Aimoré 3+ goals
69%
São Paulo RS 1+ goals
48%
São Paulo RS 2+ goals
14%
São Paulo RS 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Aimoré (draw refunded)
96%
São Paulo RS (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aimoré at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

São Paulo RS away — creates 0.50, concedes 5.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aimoré attack 1.91 + São Paulo RS defence 5.50 → ÷2 → 3.71

São Paulo RS attack 0.50 + Aimoré defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Aimoré scores more
89%
level
7%
São Paulo RS scores more
3%

Aimoré at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Aimoré will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Gaúcha: Aimoré 8–0 São Paulo RS

Aimoré beat São Paulo RS 8-0 in Copa Gaúcha on September 26, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio João Corrêa da Silveira in São Leopoldo, Rio Grande do Sul.