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Aimoré vs Sao Jose — Copa Gaúcha 2024

Aimoré
Aimoré
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sao Jose
Sao Jose
10/20/2024Copa GaúchaCopa Gaúcha · 1st Phase - 4Estádio João Corrêa da Silveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Aimoré47%
×Draw28%
Sao Jose25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aimoré
1.37
Sao Jose
0.91

Aimoré creates 51% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Aimoré
1.91
Sao Jose
1.00

allows per match

Aimoré
0.82
Sao Jose
0.83

finishing

Aimoré+0.00on par
Sao Jose+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aimoré ↓

Sao Jose →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Aimoré or draw
75%
Aimoré or Sao Jose
72%
Draw or Sao Jose
53%

Winning margin

Aimoré wins by 2+
23%
Sao Jose wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Aimoré 1+ goals
75%
Aimoré 2+ goals
40%
Aimoré 3+ goals
16%
Sao Jose 1+ goals
60%
Sao Jose 2+ goals
23%
Sao Jose 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Aimoré (draw refunded)
66%
Sao Jose (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aimoré at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Sao Jose away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aimoré attack 1.91 + Sao Jose defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.37

Sao Jose attack 1.00 + Aimoré defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Aimoré scores more
47%
level
28%
Sao Jose scores more
25%

Aimoré at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Aimoré will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aimoré vs Sao Jose

Aimoré and Sao Jose drew 1-1 in Copa Gaúcha on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio João Corrêa da Silveira in São Leopoldo, Rio Grande do Sul.