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Aimoré vs Cascavel — Serie D 2018

Aimoré
Aimoré
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cascavel
Cascavel
5/7/2022Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 4Estádio João Corrêa da Silveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Aimoré38%
×Draw32%
Cascavel30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aimoré
1.02
Cascavel
0.88

Aimoré creates 16% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 51 away

creates per match

Aimoré
0.95
Cascavel
0.94

allows per match

Aimoré
0.82
Cascavel
1.10

finishing

Aimoré+0.00on par
Cascavel+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aimoré ↓

Cascavel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Aimoré or draw
70%
Aimoré or Cascavel
68%
Draw or Cascavel
62%

Winning margin

Aimoré wins by 2+
15%
Cascavel wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aimoré 1+ goals
64%
Aimoré 2+ goals
27%
Aimoré 3+ goals
8%
Cascavel 1+ goals
59%
Cascavel 2+ goals
22%
Cascavel 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Aimoré (draw refunded)
55%
Cascavel (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aimoré at home — creates 0.95, concedes 0.82 · 22 matches

Cascavel away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aimoré attack 0.95 + Cascavel defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Cascavel attack 0.94 + Aimoré defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Aimoré scores more
38%
level
32%
Cascavel scores more
30%

Aimoré at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Aimoré will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aimoré vs Cascavel

Cascavel beat Aimoré 1-0 in Serie D on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio João Corrêa da Silveira in São Leopoldo, Rio Grande do Sul.