AIK W 0–0 Trelleborg W: Result & Stats | Elitettan

AIK W

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Trelleborg W

4/1/2023

Elitettan · Round 1Skytteholms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

AIK W73%

×Draw15%

Trelleborg W12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AIK WExpected goals in this matchTrelleborg W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.73

1.02

AIK W

2.73

Trelleborg W

1.02

AIK W creates 168% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 31 away

4.00

creates per match

1.74

0.31

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

AIK W

4.00

Trelleborg W

1.74

allows per match

AIK W

0.31

Trelleborg W

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AIK W+0.00on par

Trelleborg W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK W ↓

Trelleborg W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

AIK W or draw

88%

AIK W or Trelleborg W

85%

Draw or Trelleborg W

27%

Winning margin

AIK W wins by 2+

52%

Trelleborg W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

AIK W 1+ goals

93%

AIK W 2+ goals

75%

AIK W 3+ goals

50%

Trelleborg W 1+ goals

64%

Trelleborg W 2+ goals

27%

Trelleborg W 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

AIK W (draw refunded)

86%

Trelleborg W (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK W at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.31 · 13 matches

Trelleborg W away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK W attack 4.00 + Trelleborg W defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 2.73

Trelleborg W attack 1.74 + AIK W defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

AIK W scores more

73%

level

15%

Trelleborg W scores more

12%

AIK W at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "AIK W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

T. Olsson← E. Degerstedt

57'

J. Lindblom← H. Ekengren

60'

D. Famili← M. Sjöström

70'

L. Nazeri← M. Hagström

70'

M. Sabuni Söderling← W. Ljung Klingwall

74'

R. Strand← A. Egnér

83'

T. Olsson

86'

E. Jansson← A. Grabus

89'

E. Nilsson← H. Persson

AIK

Trelleborg

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Björk

60'▲D. Famili←▼M. Sjöström

70'▲L. Nazeri←▼M. Hagström

70'▲M. Sabuni Söderling←▼W. Ljung Klingwall

86'▲E. Jansson←▼A. Grabus

AIK W substitutes

FamiliNazeriSöderlingJanssonFrigrenParknerPersbeck

Manager: J. Felldin

46'▲T. Olsson←▼E. Degerstedt

57'▲J. Lindblom←▼H. Ekengren

74'▲R. Strand←▼A. Egnér

89'▲E. Nilsson←▼H. Persson

Trelleborg W substitutes

OlssonLindblomStrandNilssonSvenssonJonssonAndersson

Match Recap: AIK W vs Trelleborg W

AIK W and Trelleborg W drew 0-0 in Elitettan on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Skytteholms IP in Solna.

AIK W vs Trelleborg W — Elitettan 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: AIK W vs Trelleborg W