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AIK W vs Malmö FF W — Damallsvenskan 2020

AIK W
AIK W
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Malmö FF W
Malmö FF W
D. Famili 30'
I. D'Aquila 56'
T. Skoog 48', 19'
S. Fornes 9'
4/19/2025DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 4Skytteholms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

AIK W24%
×Draw22%
Malmö FF W54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AIK W
1.23
Malmö FF W
1.96

Malmö FF W creates 59% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

AIK W
1.19
Malmö FF W
2.20

allows per match

AIK W
1.71
Malmö FF W
1.26

finishing

AIK W+0.14scores more
Malmö FF W+0.80scores more

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK W ↓

Malmö FF W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

AIK W or draw
46%
AIK W or Malmö FF W
78%
Draw or Malmö FF W
76%

Winning margin

AIK W wins by 2+
10%
Malmö FF W wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

AIK W 1+ goals
71%
AIK W 2+ goals
35%
AIK W 3+ goals
13%
Malmö FF W 1+ goals
86%
Malmö FF W 2+ goals
58%
Malmö FF W 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

AIK W (draw refunded)
31%
Malmö FF W (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK W at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.71 · 9 matches

Malmö FF W away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.26 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK W attack 1.19 + Malmö FF W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Malmö FF W attack 2.20 + AIK W defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

AIK W scores more
24%
level
22%
Malmö FF W scores more
54%

Malmö FF W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Malmö FF W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
T. SkoogMalmö FF WMalmö FF W · M
9.2

Match Events

9'
S. Fornes
19'
T. Skoog
30'
D. Famili↳ H. Tabata
46'
A. Bogucka← H. Tabata
48'
T. Skoog↳ I. Belloumou
56'
Ella Reidy
56'
I. D'Aquila
63'
A. Beard← O. Lindstedt
63'
N. Eriksen-Yasseri← S. Carstens
66'
Daniella Famili
73'
Anna Oscarsson
73'
L. Gustafsson← I. D'Aquila
73'
B. Persson← K. Kosola
81'
A. Plantin← S. Fornes
86'
Mia Persson
87'
V. Dahlqvist← E. Reidy
87'
M. Sjostrom← A. Grabus
90+1'
Nova Selin
90+1'
K. Astrom← M. Kristell
90'
M. Khatawi← T. Skoog

Possession

40%AIK

Shots

9AIK

Pass accuracy

47%AIK

Statistics

AIKMalmö
Overview
40%Possession60%
9Total Shots17
0.42Expected Goals (xG)2.31
7Corners5
13Fouls9
Shots
9Total Shots17
4On Target10
1Off Target1
4Blocked6
3Inside Box13
6Outside Box4
Passing
40%Possession60%
333Total Passes706
249Accurate Passes600
75%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
6Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls9
4Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
0Offsides0

Damallsvenskan: AIK W 1–4 Malmö FF W

Malmö FF W beat AIK W 4-1 in Damallsvenskan on April 19, 2025.

Goals: S. Fornes (9'), T. Skoog (19', 48'), D. Famili (30'), I. D'Aquila (56').

Malmö FF W controlled possession (60%) and registered 17 shots to 9.

The match was played at Skytteholms IP in Solna.