AIK W vs Hammarby W: Preview & Prediction

AIK W

Preview

11:00

Hammarby W

9/19/2026

Damallsvenskan · Round 19Skytteholms IP

Big match

65%

Hammarby W

model favours

16%18%65%

Hammarby W score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–2

likely score

67%

over 2.5 goals

61%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

AIK W16%

×Draw18%

Hammarby W65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AIK WExpected goals in this matchHammarby W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

2.38

AIK W

1.11

Hammarby W

2.38

Hammarby W creates 114% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.19

creates per match

3.06

1.71

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

AIK W

1.19

Hammarby W

3.06

allows per match

AIK W

1.71

Hammarby W

1.03

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

AIK W+0.14scores more

Hammarby W-0.39scores less

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK W ↓

Hammarby W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

AIK W or draw

35%

AIK W or Hammarby W

82%

Draw or Hammarby W

84%

Winning margin

AIK W wins by 2+

6%

Hammarby W wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

AIK W 1+ goals

67%

AIK W 2+ goals

30%

AIK W 3+ goals

10%

Hammarby W 1+ goals

91%

Hammarby W 2+ goals

68%

Hammarby W 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

AIK W (draw refunded)

20%

Hammarby W (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK W at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.71 · 9 matches

Hammarby W away — creates 3.06, concedes 1.03 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK W attack 1.19 + Hammarby W defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.11

Hammarby W attack 3.06 + AIK W defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

AIK W scores more

16%

level

18%

Hammarby W scores more

65%

Hammarby W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Hammarby W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Hammarby W have won 7 of the last 9 meetings
67% of Hammarby W’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Top-of-the-table clash — AIK W 4 vs Hammarby W 2
Both teams score in only 33% of Hammarby W’s matches
AIK W win just 16% against the top half (vs 44% against the bottom)
Style contrast — AIK W play Direct / counter-attacking, Hammarby W Possession-dominant