AIK W 0–2 Hammarby W: Result & Stats

AIK W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Hammarby W

E. Wangerheim 81'

S. Holmberg 45+3'

6/23/2024

Damallsvenskan · Round 12Skytteholms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

AIK W22%

×Draw23%

Hammarby W56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AIK WExpected goals in this matchHammarby W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.87

AIK W

1.08

Hammarby W

1.87

Hammarby W creates 73% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 69 away

1.21

creates per match

2.09

1.65

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

AIK W

1.21

Hammarby W

2.09

allows per match

AIK W

1.65

Hammarby W

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AIK W+0.00on par

Hammarby W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK W ↓

Hammarby W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

AIK W or draw

44%

AIK W or Hammarby W

77%

Draw or Hammarby W

78%

Winning margin

AIK W wins by 2+

8%

Hammarby W wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

AIK W 1+ goals

66%

AIK W 2+ goals

29%

AIK W 3+ goals

10%

Hammarby W 1+ goals

85%

Hammarby W 2+ goals

56%

Hammarby W 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

AIK W (draw refunded)

28%

Hammarby W (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK W at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.65 · 57 matches

Hammarby W away — creates 2.09, concedes 0.96 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK W attack 1.21 + Hammarby W defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.08

Hammarby W attack 2.09 + AIK W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

AIK W scores more

22%

level

23%

Hammarby W scores more

56%

Hammarby W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hammarby W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

N. Selin← A. Grabus

45+3'

S. Holmberg

55'

Moa Sjöström

57'

E. Wangerheim← S. Vallotto

65'

E. Reidy← E. Jansson

65'

M. Johansson← M. Rojas Flores

74'

Jonna Andersson

77'

T. Sørbo← J. Roddar

81'

E. Wangerheim

86'

V. Dahlqvist← N. Jakobsson

86'

S. Frigren← M. Sjöström

90+1'

K. Folkesson← E. Westin

AIK4-4-2

Hammarby4-5-1

41

Blakstad

23

▼

Westin

7

Joramo

10

▼

Vallotto

6

▼

20

25

2

18

31

⚽

1

30

2

37

4

17

▼

Jansson

7

▼

Flores

25

Lindstedt

13

Famili

9

▼

Sjöström

14

▼

Grabus

12

▼

Jakobsson

Manager: J. Björk

22'▲N. Selin←▼A. Grabus

65'▲E. Reidy←▼E. Jansson

65'▲M. Johansson←▼M. Rojas Flores

86'▲V. Dahlqvist←▼N. Jakobsson

86'▲S. Frigren←▼M. Sjöström

AIK W substitutes

18Selin23Reidy34Johansson8Dahlqvist21Frigren3Parkner32Persbeck

Manager: M. Sjögren

57'▲E. Wangerheim←▼S. Vallotto

77'▲T. Sørbo←▼J. Roddar

90+1'▲K. Folkesson←▼E. Westin

Hammarby W substitutes

11Wangerheim4Sørbo22Folkesson8Gibson14Andersson15Ihrfelt29Edrud

Damallsvenskan: AIK W 0–2 Hammarby W

Hammarby W beat AIK W 2-0 in Damallsvenskan on June 23, 2024.

Goals: S. Holmberg (45+3'), E. Wangerheim (81').

The match was played at Skytteholms IP in Solna.

AIK W vs Hammarby W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Damallsvenskan: AIK W 0–2 Hammarby W