AIK W 2–2 Hammarby W: Result & Stats

AIK W

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Hammarby W

5/8/2021

Damallsvenskan · Round 4Skytteholms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

AIK W16%

×Draw18%

Hammarby W65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AIK WExpected goals in this matchHammarby W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

2.38

AIK W

1.11

Hammarby W

2.38

Hammarby W creates 114% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.19

creates per match

3.06

1.71

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

AIK W

1.19

Hammarby W

3.06

allows per match

AIK W

1.71

Hammarby W

1.03

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

AIK W+0.14scores more

Hammarby W-0.39scores less

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK W ↓

Hammarby W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

AIK W or draw

35%

AIK W or Hammarby W

82%

Draw or Hammarby W

84%

Winning margin

AIK W wins by 2+

6%

Hammarby W wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

AIK W 1+ goals

67%

AIK W 2+ goals

30%

AIK W 3+ goals

10%

Hammarby W 1+ goals

91%

Hammarby W 2+ goals

68%

Hammarby W 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

AIK W (draw refunded)

20%

Hammarby W (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK W at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.71 · 9 matches

Hammarby W away — creates 3.06, concedes 1.03 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK W attack 1.19 + Hammarby W defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.11

Hammarby W attack 3.06 + AIK W defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

AIK W scores more

16%

level

18%

Hammarby W scores more

65%

Hammarby W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Hammarby W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff