AIK W 5–0 Häcken II W: Result & Stats | Elitettan

AIK W

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Häcken II W

M. Sjöström 67'

A. Grabus 55', 27' (pen)

M. Rojas Flores 49'

D. Famili 17'

9/2/2023

Elitettan · Round 18Skytteholms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

AIK W84%

×Draw11%

Häcken II W5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AIK WExpected goals in this matchHäcken II W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.12

0.69

AIK W

3.12

Häcken II W

0.69

AIK W creates 352% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 31 away

4.00

creates per match

1.06

0.31

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

AIK W

4.00

Häcken II W

1.06

allows per match

AIK W

0.31

Häcken II W

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AIK W+0.00on par

Häcken II W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK W ↓

Häcken II W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–15%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

AIK W or draw

95%

AIK W or Häcken II W

89%

Draw or Häcken II W

16%

Winning margin

AIK W wins by 2+

66%

Häcken II W wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

AIK W 1+ goals

95%

AIK W 2+ goals

81%

AIK W 3+ goals

59%

Häcken II W 1+ goals

50%

Häcken II W 2+ goals

15%

Häcken II W 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

AIK W (draw refunded)

94%

Häcken II W (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK W at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.31 · 13 matches

Häcken II W away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK W attack 4.00 + Häcken II W defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 3.12

Häcken II W attack 1.06 + AIK W defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

AIK W scores more

84%

level

11%

Häcken II W scores more

5%

AIK W at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "AIK W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

D. Famili

27'

A. GrabusPenalty

46'

S. Parkner← P. Fischerová

49'

M. Rojas Flores

55'

A. Grabus

62'

E. Jansson← V. Dreifaldt

62'

W. Ljung Klingwall← M. Rojas Flores

66'

B. Norén← B. Hultbäck Nattland

66'

F. Thunell← F. Mellingsäter

66'

N. Hertz Saebbö← E. Lennartsson

67'

M. Sjöström

69'

A. Grabus

74'

A. Bogucka← A. Grabus

74'

M. Sabuni Söderling← D. Famili

76'

J. Nordin

77'

T. Lindskog← M. Ekblom

AIK

Häcken

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Famili

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Flores

⚽

Sjöström

Manager: J. Björk

46'▲S. Parkner←▼P. Fischerová

62'▲E. Jansson←▼V. Dreifaldt

62'▲W. Ljung Klingwall←▼M. Rojas Flores

74'▲A. Bogucka←▼A. Grabus

74'▲M. Sabuni Söderling←▼D. Famili

AIK W substitutes

ParknerJanssonKlingwallBoguckaSöderlingPersbeckAhlin

Manager: J. Lindén Johansson

66'▲B. Norén←▼B. Hultbäck Nattland

66'▲F. Thunell←▼F. Mellingsäter

66'▲N. Hertz Saebbö←▼E. Lennartsson

77'▲T. Lindskog←▼M. Ekblom

Häcken II W substitutes

NorénThunellSaebböLindskogWallemLantz