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AIK W vs Brommapojkarna W — Damallsvenskan 2020

AIK W
AIK W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Brommapojkarna W
Brommapojkarna W
A. Grabus 47' (pen), 14'
4/26/2025DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 5Skytteholms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

AIK W45%
×Draw24%
Brommapojkarna W32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AIK W
1.71
Brommapojkarna W
1.41

AIK W creates 21% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

AIK W
1.19
Brommapojkarna W
1.10

allows per match

AIK W
1.71
Brommapojkarna W
2.23

finishing

AIK W+0.14scores more
Brommapojkarna W-0.30scores less

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK W ↓

Brommapojkarna W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

AIK W or draw
68%
AIK W or Brommapojkarna W
76%
Draw or Brommapojkarna W
55%

Winning margin

AIK W wins by 2+
23%
Brommapojkarna W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

AIK W 1+ goals
82%
AIK W 2+ goals
51%
AIK W 3+ goals
24%
Brommapojkarna W 1+ goals
76%
Brommapojkarna W 2+ goals
41%
Brommapojkarna W 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

AIK W (draw refunded)
58%
Brommapojkarna W (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK W at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.71 · 9 matches

Brommapojkarna W away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.23 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK W attack 1.19 + Brommapojkarna W defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.71

Brommapojkarna W attack 1.10 + AIK W defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AIK W scores more
45%
level
24%
Brommapojkarna W scores more
32%

AIK W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AIK W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
A. GrabusAIK WAIK W · F
8.2

Match Events

14'
A. Grabus↳ M. Sjostrom
18'
Tuva Ölvestad
46'
L. Lillback← E. Engstrom
47'
A. GrabusPenalty
49'
Julia Olsson
55'
I. Navren← S. Frigren
72'
H. Tabata← N. Selin
75'
A. Priks← A. Wulff
79'
F. Saving← E. Reidy
79'
V. Dahlqvist← M. Sjostrom
87'
O. Lindstedt← A. Beard

Possession

49%AIK

Shots

14AIK

Pass accuracy

50%AIK

Statistics

AIKBrommapojkarna
Overview
49%Possession51%
14Total Shots13
2.62Expected Goals (xG)1.18
3Corners2
12Fouls12
Shots
14Total Shots13
5On Target3
2Off Target4
7Blocked4
9Inside Box7
5Outside Box6
Passing
49%Possession51%
364Total Passes390
247Accurate Passes270
68%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls12
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
4Offsides0

Damallsvenskan: AIK W 2–0 Brommapojkarna W

AIK W beat Brommapojkarna W 2-0 in Damallsvenskan on April 26, 2025.

Goals: A. Grabus (14', 47' pen).

Brommapojkarna W controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at Skytteholms IP in Solna.