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AIK Stockholm vs Plzen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Plzen
Plzen
1/16/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Estadi Olimpic Camilo Cano La Nucia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

AIK Stockholm19%
×Draw20%
Plzen61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AIK Stockholm
1.09
Plzen
2.13

Plzen creates 95% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

AIK Stockholm
1.56
Plzen
2.38

allows per match

AIK Stockholm
1.89
Plzen
0.63

finishing

AIK Stockholm+0.00on par
Plzen+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK Stockholm ↓

Plzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

AIK Stockholm or draw
39%
AIK Stockholm or Plzen
80%
Draw or Plzen
81%

Winning margin

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
7%
Plzen wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
66%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
30%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
10%
Plzen 1+ goals
88%
Plzen 2+ goals
63%
Plzen 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
23%
Plzen (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK Stockholm at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

Plzen away — creates 2.38, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK Stockholm attack 1.56 + Plzen defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.09

Plzen attack 2.38 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

AIK Stockholm scores more
19%
level
20%
Plzen scores more
61%

Plzen at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AIK Stockholm vs Plzen

Plzen beat AIK Stockholm 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadi Olimpic Camilo Cano La Nucia in La Nucia.