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AIK Stockholm vs Ostersunds FK — Friendlies Clubs 2026

AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm
FT
0 – 1
Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK
6/28/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Norrtälje Sportcentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

AIK Stockholm36%
×Draw30%
Ostersunds FK34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AIK Stockholm
1.08
Ostersunds FK
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

AIK Stockholm
1.56
Ostersunds FK
0.20

allows per match

AIK Stockholm
1.89
Ostersunds FK
0.60

finishing

AIK Stockholm+0.00on par
Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK Stockholm ↓

Ostersunds FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

AIK Stockholm or draw
66%
AIK Stockholm or Ostersunds FK
70%
Draw or Ostersunds FK
64%

Winning margin

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
14%
Ostersunds FK wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
66%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
29%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
10%
Ostersunds FK 1+ goals
65%
Ostersunds FK 2+ goals
28%
Ostersunds FK 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
51%
Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK Stockholm at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 0.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK Stockholm attack 1.56 + Ostersunds FK defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.08

Ostersunds FK attack 0.20 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

AIK Stockholm scores more
36%
level
30%
Ostersunds FK scores more
34%

AIK Stockholm at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: AIK Stockholm 0–1 Ostersunds FK

Ostersunds FK beat AIK Stockholm 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on June 28, 2021.

The match was played at Norrtälje Sportcentrum in Norrtälje.