AIK Stockholm 1–0 Gefle IF: Result & Stats

AIK Stockholm

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gefle IF

A. Salétros 83'

2/24/2024

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Tele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

AIK Stockholm68%

×Draw21%

Gefle IF12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AIK StockholmExpected goals in this matchGefle IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.63

AIK Stockholm

1.90

Gefle IF

0.63

AIK Stockholm creates 202% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

2.08

creates per match

0.57

0.69

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

AIK Stockholm

2.08

Gefle IF

0.57

allows per match

AIK Stockholm

0.69

Gefle IF

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AIK Stockholm+0.00on par

Gefle IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK Stockholm ↓

Gefle IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

AIK Stockholm or draw

88%

AIK Stockholm or Gefle IF

79%

Draw or Gefle IF

32%

Winning margin

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+

41%

Gefle IF wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals

85%

AIK Stockholm 2+ goals

56%

AIK Stockholm 3+ goals

29%

Gefle IF 1+ goals

47%

Gefle IF 2+ goals

13%

Gefle IF 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)

85%

Gefle IF (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK Stockholm at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Gefle IF away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK Stockholm attack 2.08 + Gefle IF defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.90

Gefle IF attack 0.57 + AIK Stockholm defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

AIK Stockholm scores more

68%

level

21%

Gefle IF scores more

12%

AIK Stockholm at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

45+1'

58'

58'

63'

S. Friman← N. Eriksson

71'

O. Faraj← T. Ayari

72'

A. Edqvist← Antonio Yakoub

72'

Iu Ranera← C. Capotondi

72'

L. Englund← J. Hjelte

80'

I. Coulibaly← B. Celina

83'

A. Salétros

AIK

Gefle

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: H. Berg

71'▲O. Faraj←▼T. Ayari

80'▲I. Coulibaly←▼B. Celina

AIK Stockholm substitutes

FarajCoulibalyAliFaqaBeširovićRingDiawaraDabo

Manager: M. Bengtsson

63'▲S. Friman←▼N. Eriksson

72'▲A. Edqvist←▼Antonio Yakoub

72'▲Iu Ranera←▼C. Capotondi

72'▲L. Englund←▼J. Hjelte

Gefle IF substitutes

FrimanEdqvistRaneraEnglundHjelmLättmanÄdelEkmanSallum

Match Recap: AIK Stockholm vs Gefle IF

AIK Stockholm beat Gefle IF 1-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 24, 2024.

Goals: A. Salétros (83').

The match was played at Tele2 Arena in Stockholm.

AIK Stockholm vs Gefle IF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: AIK Stockholm vs Gefle IF