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AIK Stockholm vs Gais — Allsvenskan 2026

AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm
Preview
13:00
Gais
Gais
7/18/2026AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 13Strawberry Arena
Big match
38%
AIK Stockholm
model favours
38%27%35%

Gais have scored in 11 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

AIK Stockholm38%
×Draw27%
Gais35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AIK Stockholm
1.29
Gais
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 23 away

creates per match

AIK Stockholm
1.32
Gais
1.39

allows per match

AIK Stockholm
1.08
Gais
1.26

finishing

AIK Stockholm+0.00on par
Gais+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK Stockholm ↓

Gais →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AIK Stockholm or draw
65%
AIK Stockholm or Gais
73%
Draw or Gais
62%

Winning margin

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
17%
Gais wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
72%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
37%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
14%
Gais 1+ goals
71%
Gais 2+ goals
35%
Gais 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
52%
Gais (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK Stockholm at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.08 · 25 matches

Gais away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK Stockholm attack 1.32 + Gais defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Gais attack 1.39 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

AIK Stockholm scores more
38%
level
27%
Gais scores more
35%

AIK Stockholm at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • AIK Stockholm have won 3 in a row
  • AIK Stockholm score first in only 29% of matches
  • Style contrast — AIK Stockholm play Direct / counter-attacking, Gais Attack-heavy
  • 35% of AIK Stockholm’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
AIK Stockholm
Direct / counter-attacking
Gais
Attack-heavy
46%Possession51%
78%Pass accuracy82%
12.2ShotsBiggest gap16.6
1.37xG1.68
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
AIK StockholmGais

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
AIK Stockholm
1
Draws
3
Gais
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 40%
2–31–11–00–10–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Stockholm
WWWLL
Gais
WDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AIK Stockholm face Gais (Allsvenskan)

Allsvenskan returns with AIK Stockholm hosting Gais. Match starts July 18, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

AIK Stockholm host Gais at Strawberry Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.