AIK Stockholm 0–1 Gais: Result & Stats

AIK Stockholm

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gais

G. Lundgren 3'

7/29/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 16Strawberry Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

AIK Stockholm38%

×Draw27%

Gais35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AIK StockholmExpected goals in this matchGais

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.23

AIK Stockholm

1.29

Gais

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 23 away

1.32

creates per match

1.39

1.08

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

AIK Stockholm

1.32

Gais

1.39

allows per match

AIK Stockholm

1.08

Gais

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AIK Stockholm+0.00on par

Gais+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK Stockholm ↓

Gais →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

AIK Stockholm or draw

65%

AIK Stockholm or Gais

73%

Draw or Gais

62%

Winning margin

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+

17%

Gais wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals

72%

AIK Stockholm 2+ goals

37%

AIK Stockholm 3+ goals

14%

Gais 1+ goals

71%

Gais 2+ goals

35%

Gais 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)

52%

Gais (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK Stockholm at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.08 · 25 matches

Gais away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK Stockholm attack 1.32 + Gais defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Gais attack 1.39 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

AIK Stockholm scores more

38%

level

27%

Gais scores more

35%

AIK Stockholm at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

A. Salétros

AIK Stockholm · M

7.9

Match Events

3'

G. Lundgren↳ A. Ahl-Holmström

16'

Lamine Dabo

22'

Harun Ibrahim

46'

Rui Modesto← E. Ring

46'

S. Papagiannopoulos← B. Hansen

53'

Filip Beckman

63'

A. Boudri← A. Henriksson

63'

L. Hedlund← A. Ahl-Holmström

67'

Lucas Hedlund

74'

C. Amatkarijo← M. Çelik

81'

A. Björnström← M. Thychosen

81'

J. Guidetti← Lamine Dabo

83'

A. Čardaklija← J. Åberg

89'

Omar Faraj← B. Celina

90+6'

Alexander Milošević

90+4'

Mergim Krasniqi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AIKGais

Overview

68%Possession32%

21Total Shots10

1.77Expected Goals (xG)1.28

6Corners2

17Fouls14

Shots

21Total Shots10

4On Target2

12Off Target3

5Blocked5

13Inside Box8

8Outside Box2

Passing

68%Possession32%

600Total Passes294

500Accurate Passes213

83%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

3Offsides0

Allsvenskan: AIK Stockholm 0–1 Gais

Gais beat AIK Stockholm 1-0 in Allsvenskan on July 29, 2024.

Goals: G. Lundgren (3').

AIK Stockholm controlled possession (68%) and registered 21 shots to 10.

The match was played at Strawberry Arena in Solna.

AIK Stockholm vs Gais — Allsvenskan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Allsvenskan: AIK Stockholm 0–1 Gais