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AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF — Svenska Cupen 2019

AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IFadvanced
3/17/2024Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Semi-finalsFriends Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

AIK Stockholm28%
×Draw22%
Djurgardens IF50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AIK Stockholm
1.45
Djurgardens IF
1.97

Djurgardens IF creates 36% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 16 away

creates per match

AIK Stockholm
2.08
Djurgardens IF
3.25

allows per match

AIK Stockholm
0.69
Djurgardens IF
0.81

finishing

AIK Stockholm+0.00on par
Djurgardens IF+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK Stockholm ↓

Djurgardens IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

AIK Stockholm or draw
50%
AIK Stockholm or Djurgardens IF
78%
Draw or Djurgardens IF
72%

Winning margin

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
13%
Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
77%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
42%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
18%
Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
86%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
58%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
36%
Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK Stockholm at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Djurgardens IF away — creates 3.25, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK Stockholm attack 2.08 + Djurgardens IF defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.45

Djurgardens IF attack 3.25 + AIK Stockholm defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

AIK Stockholm scores more
28%
level
22%
Djurgardens IF scores more
50%

Djurgardens IF at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF

AIK Stockholm and Djurgardens IF drew 1-1 in Svenska Cupen on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Friends Arena in Solna.