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Aigle Royal vs Union Douala — Elite One 2019

Aigle Royal
Aigle Royal
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Union Douala
Union Douala
12/30/2023Elite OneElite One · Round 13Stade Municipal de Bafoussam

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Aigle Royal44%
×Draw30%
Union Douala26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aigle Royal
1.19
Union Douala
0.83

Aigle Royal creates 43% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 85 away

creates per match

Aigle Royal
1.30
Union Douala
0.71

allows per match

Aigle Royal
0.95
Union Douala
1.08

finishing

Aigle Royal+0.00on par
Union Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aigle Royal ↓

Union Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Aigle Royal or draw
74%
Aigle Royal or Union Douala
70%
Draw or Union Douala
56%

Winning margin

Aigle Royal wins by 2+
19%
Union Douala wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Aigle Royal 1+ goals
70%
Aigle Royal 2+ goals
33%
Aigle Royal 3+ goals
12%
Union Douala 1+ goals
56%
Union Douala 2+ goals
20%
Union Douala 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Aigle Royal (draw refunded)
63%
Union Douala (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aigle Royal at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.95 · 37 matches

Union Douala away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aigle Royal attack 1.30 + Union Douala defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.19

Union Douala attack 0.71 + Aigle Royal defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Aigle Royal scores more
44%
level
30%
Union Douala scores more
26%

Aigle Royal at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Aigle Royal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aigle Royal vs Union Douala

Aigle Royal beat Union Douala 4-1 in Elite One on December 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Bafoussam in Bafoussam.